This equates to 0.80 percent growth, weak by almost anyone’s definition. But for domestic banks, loan balances have risen just $67 billion this year from a starting balance of $8.5 trillion, according to the Federal Reserve’s H.8 report. What’s more, many had expected loan growth to drive better performance.
We’re almost halfway through 2018 and banks have underperformed in several areas. Now to be clear, this is not a dire announcement, but the current level also doesn’t indicate “a world at peace.” We have moved to DEFCON 4 from 5.
We thought about it within the current landscape of financial risk, where there are troubling medium- and longer-term trends, including fundamental changes to regulatory regimes. Over time, DEFCON has seeped into the public lexicon where it’s been used to talk about threats that have nothing to do with defense.
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